The main-draw action of the first Grand Slam of the year is just around the corner, and even before a ball is struck on the grandest stage, a familiar narrative has resurfaced. On the men’s side, the spotlight is laser-focused on two names - Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. Ranked no. 1 and no. 2 in the world, they are the clear favorites to dominate the 2026 AO, a tournament that has increasingly felt like the foundation of their generational rivalry. But who has the edge this time?

Sinner arrives in Melbourne looking to achieve something truly historic - a three-peat, having lifted the title in both 2024 and 2025. His calm, calculated hard-court excellence has made him a formidable force Down Under. Alcaraz, however, walks into Rod Laver Arena carrying a different kind of pressure - and kind of opportunity. At just 22, he is chasing the one piece missing from his resume. Winning the AO would officially make him the youngest player ever to complete the Career Grand Slam. And this time, a tennis legend believes the stars may align for Carlitos!

Speaking to the Laver Cup website, the 11x major champion Rod Laver weighed in on the question on everyone’s mind: Who will win the 2026 AO? “It’s extremely difficult to predict, which is a great situation for tennis to be in. So many players could take it. Of course, Sinner and Alcaraz are at the top of the list as their rivalry grows.” But then came the key moment, the one line that sent fans into a frenzy.

“Sinner continues to strengthen his game and is the two-time defending champion, but if the conditions are hot, I’d say Carlos has an edge, and his desire to win is going to be higher than ever because he hasn’t won it before.”

However, Rod Laver also mentioned that Novak Djokovic also can’t be ruled out. The Serb is a 10x champion in Melbourne, and he loves these conditions Down Under. 

Only time will tell who secures the crown this time at the first Grand Slam tournament of the season. But let me tell you that this wasn’t the first time that we’ve seen Laver showcasing his admiration for the Spaniard.

After witnessing their epic battle at the 2025 French Open final, Laver assured the tennis world that the sport is in great hands. He loves the way both Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have transformed the game, but according to him, the Spaniard has already cemented his place among the greats in the sport.

Following Alcaraz’s title triumph at the 2024 Wimbledon, Laver stated, “Carlos Alcaraz's triumph over a great champion like Novak Djokovic is a testament to his incredible talent, determination, and composure under pressure. Carlos has cemented his place among the tennis greats with his brilliant performance today.”

So, his words on Carlos Alcaraz’s chances at the 2026 AO are not a big surprise. But let me tell you, he isn’t the only one who has picked Alcaraz as the favorite at the 2026 AO.

Former world number 2 discusses Carlos Alcaraz’s chances at the 2026 AO

Carlos Alcaraz has taken over tennis headlines for years now, but as the 2026 AO approaches, a familiar question resurfaces - can he finally conquer Melbourne? In a previous statement, Alcaraz expressed his desire to win the AO title and reach yet another milestone in his career. “Main goal for me to complete a career Grand Slam, calendar Grand Slam.”

But can he do it in 2026? As per Eurosport, Alex Corretja offered a thoughtful breakdown of his chances at the AO against another real contender like Sinner. “For Sinner, it’s an idyllic place; the ball and conditions suit him perfectly. For Carlos, it’s the only Slam he hasn’t triumphed in, but I think finishing 2025 with more freshness might have allowed him to come to the pre-season with more energy, enabling him to find his best version in Melbourne.”

This will be Alcaraz’s fifth appearance in the main draw of the AO, and this time he’ll be desperate to break the barrier and go past the QF. Corretja further added, “It’s a very nice challenge for him. However, it won’t be easy for anyone: other players who have felt very good in the pre-season can always surprise.”

Recently, Carlos Alcaraz defeated Jannik Sinner at an exhibition match in South Korea. Over there, he was asked about his desire to win the AO title. Replying to that, the Spaniard said, “Oh, I will try, obviously! But you know, we will see how it’s gonna be. Three amazing weeks ahead of us, if it is three.”

Last year, Alcaraz’s AO journey came to an end at the hands of Novak Djokovic in the QF. Considering his form in the last few months, do you think it’s the perfect time for Carlitos to clinch the title in Melbourne?

Written by

Sayantan Roy

Sayantan Roy is a seasoned tennis journalist at EssentiallyTennis. He brings a deep tactical understanding to his coverage, breaking down head-to-head records, match dynamics, and on-court strategies with precision. For more than two years, Sayantan has been a key member of the Live Events desk, delivering real-time insights and data-backed predictions for the platform’s Matchday Preview section. His analytical approach has sparked editorial debates and drawn recognition from respected tennis voices, including commentator and analyst Olly_Tennis. Combining his experience in writing with a passion for insightful sports journalism, Sayantan’s work serves as a trusted reference point for tennis fans around the world.

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