The autumn lights glint off the surface of the courts at Qizhong Forest Sports City Arena, where the hum of excited fans meets the crisp pop of serves. The Rolex Shanghai Masters is deep into its final rounds, and all eyes are now on one enticing showdown: Daniil Medvedev vs. Alex de Minaur. For Medvedev (2019 champion), it’s a return to the crucible where he has often thrived. For the Aussies, it’s another golden opportunity—one more match to prove that his momentum is real, even against the game’s most seasoned tacticians.

Let’s walk through how we got here, how these two stack up, and ultimately, who might emerge from this epic battle in Shanghai.

Daniil Medvedev vs. Alex de Minaur: Preview

Daniil Medvedev, once the world number one, has experienced ups and downs over recent seasons. But he still remains one of the most formidable opponents on hard courts. At this year’s Shanghai Masters, he has navigated a draw with grit and flashes of brilliance—most recently fighting off young American Learner Tien in a tense fourth round, warding off cramps and avoiding a deja vu disaster.

He defeated the 19-year-old Tien by 7-6(6),6(1)-7,6-4 to secure his spot in the QF of the Shanghai Masters against De Minaur. This win comes over a week after the American took down the Russian star at the China Open. So, this win was a bit of a sigh of relief for Medvedev. After the match, he heaped praise on Tien, saying, “He’s an unbelievable tennis player. Outside of the big three, he may be the toughest opponent I’ve ever faced.”

This will be Medvedev’s third Masters 1000 QF of the season (Indian Wells, Madrid, and Shanghai). This year, although Daniil Medvedev managed to reach the final at the Terra Wortmann Open, he’s yet to win a title.

On the other side, Alex de Minaur has already made some impressive runs this year. It started with the QF at the AO, then he went on to reach the final in Rotterdam before lifting the title later this year at the Citi Open by defeating Spain’s Alejandro Davidovich Fokina by 5-7,6-1,7-6(3). Both Medvedev and De Minaur had reached the SF of the China Open. The Aussie has entered this tournament following his three-set defeat to Jannik Sinner in the SF of the China Open.

His recent, 7-5,6-2 win over Portugal’s Nuno Borges earned him his 50th win of the season, and with this, De Minaur has now become just the third man in 2025 to hit the 50-win mark, following Carlos Alcaraz and Taylor Fritz. Talking about this particular landmark, he said, “For me, it just shows consistency, and that is what I am most proud of. Showing up every single week, and it is an amazing number. I am hoping for many more to finish off the year and not stay at 50. It has been a successful trip to Asia so far.”

With this incredible win over Borges, De Minaur has now also become the third Australian player (after Leyton Hewitt and Patrick Rafter) to score 50+ ATP Tour wins in a season over the last 40 years. Can ‘Demon’ extend that winning run by bringing out a positive result against Medvedev?

Medvedev vs De Minaur: Head-to-Head

When two warriors meet, history becomes a storytelling device. So far, Daniil Medvedev has managed to beat Alex de Minaur seven times, while the Aussie has gotten the better of him four times (hence, the H2H stat is in favor of the Russian, 7-4).

• 2025 Monte Carlo Masters R16: De Minaur 6-2,6-2.
• 2024 ATP Finals Round Robin: Medvedev 6-2,6-4.
• 2024 French Open R16: De Minaur 4-6,6-2,6-1,6-3.
• 2023 China Open R16: Medvedev 7-6(3),6-3.
• 2023 US Open R16: Medvedev 2-6,6-4,6-1,6-2.
• 2023 Canadian Open QF: De Minaur 7-6(7),7-5.
• 2022 Paris Masters R32: De Minaur 6-4,2-6,7-5.
• 2022 ATP Cup Group Stage: Medvedev 6-4,6-2.
• 2020 Paris Masters R16: Medvedev 5-7,6-2,6-2.
• 2018 Winston-Salem Open R32: Medvedev 6-3,6-3.
• 2018 Sydney International Final: Medvedev 1-6,6-4,7-5.

Medvedev leads overall, but De Minaur is no pushover—especially when he’s in form. The fact that their rivalry isn’t one-sided hints at potential volatility in this match.

Prediction: De Minaur will win this match in three sets

Despite having an edge in the H2H record, I’ll keep Daniil Medvedev slightly behind Alex de Minaur in this match. Reason? De Minaur’s confidence is soaring at the moment with a 50-18 win-loss record this season. His electrifying movement and his shot selection have also been sharper than ever. If he maintains his first-serve percentage and continues stepping inside the baseline, he can flip the script on Medvedev yet again. 

So, expect a long, physical battle filled with counter-punching exchanges and tactical mind games—but this time, the edge belongs to the Aussie.

Daniil Medvedev will aim to dictate with his deep, flat, penetrating baseline shots. If he can consistently push De Minaur backward and control the depth-to-approach-zone zones, Alex de Minaur’s usually dominant legs will be under more stress. The Aussie will definitely try to mix things up a bit by bringing in slices or drop shots in the game to disrupt Medvedev’s timing and shorten up the points.

Medvedev has been quite impressive with his serves this year (hitting 409 aces so far in this season). But Alex de Minaur’s return remains one of his hallmarks; he has the ability to neutralize pace and force the opponent to play extra balls. So, this is going to be a really intriguing contest to watch out for.

Shanghai’s humidity can be punishing, and we’ve already seen quite a few players struggling a bit here this year, and that list includes Medvedev, too! His physical struggles in the previous round could be a real vulnerability if the match stretches beyond two sets. So, I’m going for the Aussie in this epic duel.

Written by

Sayantan Roy

Sayantan Roy is a seasoned tennis journalist at EssentiallySports. He brings a deep tactical understanding to his coverage, breaking down head-to-head records, match dynamics, and on-court strategies with precision. For more than two years, Sayantan has been a key member of the Live Events desk, delivering real-time insights and data-backed predictions for the platform’s Matchday Preview section. His analytical approach has sparked editorial debates and drawn recognition from respected tennis voices, including commentator and analyst Olly_Tennis. Combining his experience in writing with a passion for insightful sports journalism, Sayantan’s work serves as a trusted reference point for tennis fans around the world.

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Edited by

Shrabana Sengupta