The sun is beginning to set over Tokyo’s hard courts, and the stage is set for a compelling Round of 32 matchup in the Japan Open. Two Americans, both with different styles and momentum, will take on each other in this high-voltage clash. But only one will move forward! Who will it be? Sebastian Korda or Marcos Giron?

Sebastian Korda vs. Marcos Giron: Preview

Sebastian Korda had a stellar start in 2025, reaching the final at the Adelaide International, where he was unfortunately defeated by Canada’s Félix Auger-Aliassime in a three-set thriller. Following that impressive run, Korda made it to the QF of the Miami Open, but in this match, he was defeated by the 24-time Grand Slam champion, Novak Djokovic. 

However, later on, following the French Open, Korda was sidelined from the Tour for almost three months due to a right shin stress fracture. He then came back into action at the Winston-Salem Open, where he started his campaign with an impressive 6-3, 6-4 win against the Czech, Vit Kopriva. After securing his 12th win of the season, the American spoke about how it feels to finally get back in action. “All the emotions possible. It’s fun to be back here. The last time I was here was in 2023, and had some good results, so it’s nice to be back here. Hopefully it stays hot and I can keep playing some good tennis.”

Although he reached the SF in that tournament, Sebastian Korda was forced to give a walkover to Marton Fucsovics in that penultimate match. It was followed by yet another mid-match walkover in the first round of the 2025 US Open against Cameron Norrie. Korda will now be entering the Japan Open, following his 6-4, 1-6, 4-6 defeat against the number 196, Yibing Wu (CHN), in the R16 of the Hangzhou Open.

On the other side, Marcos Giron will be entering this competition following his QF run at the Chengdu Open. He was defeated by his compatriot, Brandon Nakashima, in that QF match by 6-3, 2-6, 7-6(3). 

If we take a look at Giron’s record this season, he has made it to the QFs five times this year, but he’s yet to reach the SF this season. Can he change his fortunes in the ‘Land of the Rising Sun’?

Korda vs. Giron: Head-to-Head

Sebastian Korda, full of youthful promise, has shown flashes of brilliance this season, while Marcos Giron is no stranger to the grind. However, when these two have met before, the scoreboard slightly favors the one from Florida. 

California’s Marcos Giron currently trails Korda by a 1-2 margin in the H2H record. Now, it’ll be interesting to see if the 32-year-old can pull things on level terms with a win in this epic QF clash.

• 2022 Antwerp R32: Korda 6-3, 6(0)-7, 6-4.
• 2020 Newport Beach R32: Korda 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(5).
• 2019 Sarasota QF: Giron 6-1, 6-4.

So, Korda leads the mini-rivalry, but just barely. Giron has the tools to make it tougher for his opponents. But looking at these numbers, Korda has a 2-0 record on the hard courts. Is this the factor that would give him an edge against Giron?

Prediction: Korda wins in three sets

If we draw a comparison, Sebastian Korda has been in better form this year. He has a win-loss record of 14-11, while it’s just 18-20 for Marcos Giron. However, we must not forget that Giron (50) is currently ranked higher than Korda (79). 

Talking about their playing styles, starting with Korda, a tall frame, solid serve, and the kind of shot-making that can swing a match in his favor, especially on hard courts. His aggressive, all-court playing style, characterized by powerful and clean ball-striking, especially from the baseline, can do damage to his opponents. His 6-foot-5-inch height allows for a high contact point, letting him take balls “on the rise” and apply pressure by staying close to the baseline. Other than that, Sebastian Korda is also known for his ability to move forward to the net and finish off the points elegantly.

Marcos Giron loves playing on the hard courts, and his game is usually characterized by a strong baseline presence, consistency, and a reliable serve. He is also known for his incredible fitness, his ability to stay in long rallies, and being mentally tough when things get tight. Giron grinds out points, waits for errors, and takes chances when they appear. He has a strong forehand, and he is also quite good at retrieving balls from tricky positions. However, his biggest weakness is that he doesn’t have the same level of firepower as some of his opponents.

Coming to the conditions, these outdoor hard courts may give Korda a bit of favor, especially with his aggressive strokes and big serves. However, Giron’s ability to retrieve can neutralize some of that advantage if rallies get extended. So, Giron can’t be counted out completely, but statistically, Korda enters this match with a mild edge.

Further breaking down the prediction, I’m expecting the first set to be tight and heading into a tiebreaker where Sebastian Korda may get an edge. But then in the second, I feel Giron will make a strong comeback, and then in the decider, we’re probably going to see Korda sealing the deal in style.

Written by

Sayantan Roy

Sayantan Roy is a seasoned tennis journalist at EssentiallySports. He brings a deep tactical understanding to his coverage, breaking down head-to-head records, match dynamics, and on-court strategies with precision. For more than two years, Sayantan has been a key member of the Live Events desk, delivering real-time insights and data-backed predictions for the platform’s Matchday Preview section. His analytical approach has sparked editorial debates and drawn recognition from respected tennis voices, including commentator and analyst Olly_Tennis. Combining his experience in writing with a passion for insightful sports journalism, Sayantan’s work serves as a trusted reference point for tennis fans around the world.

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Edited by

Shrabana Sengupta