The China Open is no stranger to drama, and for sure, the 24th edition of this ATP 500 event will be no exception! On one side of this R32 clash we have Alexander Zverev, a seasoned contender who has lived under the spotlight for more than a decade, chasing the consistency that once made him a staple in the top 5. On the other side, Lorenzo Sonego, the Italian fighter with a knack for unsettling opponents when least expected, arrives with nothing to lose and everything to gain. 

So, when the two face each other at the National Tennis Center in Beijing, it won’t just be another early-round duel—it will be a battle of pedigree versus persistence and history versus hunger, with both men eager to tilt their seasons in the right direction. Who has the upper hand in this epic duel, though?

Alexander Zverev vs Lorenzo Sonego: Preview

The 28-year-old German entered 2025 with lofty expectations. He reached the final of the AO, but in that match, he unfortunately went down to Jannik Sinner in straight sets. It was followed by two consecutive QF appearances at the Argentina Open and the Rio Open. However, shortly after those impressive runs, he finally managed to get hold of a title at the BMW Open. Over there, Alexander Zverev defeated America’s Ben Shelton by 6-2, 6-4. 

Although Zverev made quite a few long runs in his next tournaments, he’s yet to win his second title of the season. He reached the QF of the French Open this year, but his disappointing performances at Wimbledon and the US Open have sparked major concern among his fans. Zverev will be entering this match against Sonego following his 3-6, 6(4)-7 defeat to Taylor Fritz at the Laver Cup. In this star-studded event in San Francisco, Zverev played two matches, but he had to face defeat on both occasions. Can he bounce back with a winning start in Beijing?

Well, time will tell! Coming to the Italian, Lorenzo Sonego’s 2025 arc is humbler. He has held steady, but not spectacular. Quarterfinal appearances, grind-style matches, flashes of gut-check grit—all have peppered his campaign. But he lacks marquee wins. Although Sonego reached the QFs of the AO and Open 13, he has failed to deliver in the rest of the tournaments. He will be entering this tournament following his 4-6, 4-6 defeat to Marcos Giron in the R16 of the Chengdu Open.

Zverev vs Sonego: Head-to-Head

According to the official ATP records, Alexander Zverev leads their H2H record 5-0. Across those encounters, Zverev has taken 10 of 12 sets. Their most recent meeting was in Halle. Following that win against Sonego, Zverev made a very interesting comment. He said, “Well, to be honest, for most of the match I thought I was playing Ivo Karlovic ten years ago. I didn’t know what to do on his serve, to be honest; it was so difficult to read, so difficult to return for me. In the end, I played almost a perfect tiebreak, which saved me, so I’m happy about that and moving on to tomorrow. I had to be the one who was more aggressive than him – when he’s aggressive, it is so difficult to win.” Coming to the scorecards:

• 2025 Halle R16: Zverev 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(2).
• 2024 Halle R16: Zverev 6-4, 7-6(5).
• 2024 United Cup Round Robin: Zverev 6(5)-7, 6-3, 6-4.
• 2023 Dubai QF: Zverev 7-5, 6-4.
• 2021 ATP Masters 1000 Monte-Carlo: Zverev 6-3, 6-3.

That dominance is both shield and specter. For Zverev, it’s validation. For Sonego, it’s a mental mountain to climb. But records don’t win matches—discipline under fire does. Who will win this epic battle?

Prediction: Zverev will win this match in straight sets

Despite not having a good run in recent times, we must not forget Alexander Zverev’s record in this tournament. He reached the final in Shanghai in 2019 and had made it to the semis three times. This will be his sixth appearance in this tournament and just his second since 2020. The German has a win-loss record of 12-6 in this tournament. But his overall win-loss record in this season is 45-17, and that’s much more impressive than the Italian.

Lorenzo Sonego has a win-loss record of just 18-23 this season, and when it comes to his record in this tournament, he reached the third round in 2023. Other than that, he has struggled to deliver at the Shanghai Masters (win-loss record: 2-3). 

Coming to their playing styles, Alexander Zverev is known for his tenacious, aggressive baseline game, characterized by heavy groundstrokes and a strong serve, often employing a counter-punching style, waiting for openings to capitalize on his opponent’s mistakes. In tiebreaks, breakpoints, and pressure moments, Zverev’s experience may give him a psychological edge. Other than that, Zverev’s strong forehand and backhand can also do the damage for the Italian in this epic faceoff.

Lorenzo Sonego is also known for his aggressive baseline style, characterized by a powerful forehand that he uses to dictate points, often by getting around his backhand to create an opportunity. He transitions well to the net and possesses a strong, resilient serve. Sonego’s consistency from the backcourt and his comfort chasing balls could expose any low-percentage shot Zverev attempts. But he must avoid easy errors.

I trust Alexander Zverev (world number 3) to leverage his serve and shot-making experience to edge tight moments. But I also believe Sonego (number 44) will make it competitive; he won’t simply roll over. For the underdog, forcing pressure and stealing a set might be his path, but the gulf in the H2H, mental weight, and form likely reserves this one for the German.

Written by

Sayantan Roy

Sayantan Roy is a seasoned tennis journalist at EssentiallySports. He brings a deep tactical understanding to his coverage, breaking down head-to-head records, match dynamics, and on-court strategies with precision. For more than two years, Sayantan has been a key member of the Live Events desk, delivering real-time insights and data-backed predictions for the platform’s Matchday Preview section. His analytical approach has sparked editorial debates and drawn recognition from respected tennis voices, including commentator and analyst Olly_Tennis. Combining his experience in writing with a passion for insightful sports journalism, Sayantan’s work serves as a trusted reference point for tennis fans around the world.

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Edited by

Shrabana Sengupta