As Beijing’s late-September air cools and the shadows grow longer over the outdoor courts of the National Tennis Center, a narrative quietly assembles itself. Canada’s Leylah Fernandez is all set to take on the Greek superstar, Maria Sakkari, in the R64 of the China Open. So, the stage is set; the story is waiting to write itself…

Leylah Fernandez vs Maria Sakkari: Preview

The 23-year-old Canadian has been in a better form this year than Sakkari. Other than reaching the QFs of the Abu Dhabi Open and the Nottingham Open, Leylah Fernandez clinched the title at the 2025 Citi Open. She needed just 1 hour and 9 minutes to cruise past Russia’s Anna Kalinskaya in the final by a 6-1,6-0 margin.

This was her first title since the 2023 Hong Kong Open. So, while sharing her thoughts about the incredible victory, she said, “I was very happy the way that I held my nerves. I was definitely very nervous in the beginning, but I got to play my game at the important points and kind of push through those nerves, so I was super happy about that.” Can the 2021 US Open finalist hold her nerves in a similar fashion against the former world number 3‌? Well, Fernandez will be entering this match following her straight-sets defeat to the current world number one, Aryna Sabalenka, in the third round of the US Open. So, she will be keen to bounce back on winning tracks.

On the other side, Maria Sakkari’s 2025 record is uneven, punctuated by early exits and flashes of brilliance. Her best records in this season came at the Linz Open and the Citi Open, where she reached the quarterfinals. Sakkari will be entering this match following her hard-fought victory against Ashlyn Krueger in the previous round. It took her almost three and a half hours to beat the American by 7-6(5),6(5)-7,7-5.

Sakkari had to withdraw her name from this tournament last year due to a shoulder injury. So, now after making a strong return in the competition, she said, “One of the longest matches I’ve ever played, and I really needed that win. I need those kinds of matches, I need those kinds of wins.” But now, the question is, can she keep her winning run intact?

Fernandez vs Sakkari: Head-to-Head

Leylah Fernandez and Maria Sakkari have met each other thrice in their careers so far, and if we take a look at their H2H record, the ledger tilts decisively toward the Greek at the moment (3-0). In fact, Sakkari is yet to drop a set against Fernandez. Last time it took her 1 hour and 40 minutes to beat the Canadian; it’ll be interesting to see how long it takes this time to decide the fate of this nail-biting contest.

• 2024 United Cup Round Robin: Sakkari 7-6(2),6-3.
• 2023 Citi Open R16: Sakkari 7-5,6-2.
• 2021 Grampians Trophy: Sakkari 6-2,6-2.

That record looms large. For Fernandez, it’s a shadow—but one she must step into regardless. The tension of reversing history lies at the heart of this match.

Prediction: Fernandez to win this battle in three sets

This match likely won’t be tidy. Given their history, Maria Sakkari enters with a psychological edge, every unforced error for Fernandez could echo their past. But let me tell you, Leylah Fernadez isn’t here just to contend—she’s here to challenge that very narrative. If Fernandez can maintain her baseline pressure, minimize mistakes, and make Sakkari uncomfortable early, she can shift momentum. But Sakkari knows how to dig in under fire, to grind through moments when things go awry. So, this match is going to be really tight!

Ranked 25th in the world, Leylah Fernandez has a win-loss record of 24-21 this season. She was defeated in her first match (R64) last year here by America’s Peyton Stearns. So, it’s time for her to prove her mettle on Chinese soil. Maria Sakkari’s best record at the China Open has been reaching the QF (2023), and this record might suggest that she could probably know this surface and venue more than the Canadian, but…

Sakkari (ranked 56) has struggled to find consistency this year, and she currently has a win-loss record of just 22-26. Now, if we take a look at their playing styles, Sakkari’s playing style is characterized by a powerful and aggressive all-court game, featuring a strong serve and forehand, combined with exceptional fitness and determination. However, her aggressive style sometimes leads to bursts of errors, and this could be a big concern for the Greek in this match. She needs to keep things tidy to get the better of the youngster in this match.

Leylah Fernandez has a unique, aggressive baseline playing style characterized by a high ‘fault tolerance,’ allowing her to take the ball early on the rise and attack with powerful, angled groundstrokes. This lefty mixes her potent forehands with creative use of angles, quick hands, and deceptive drop shots to keep her opponents on the back foot. Even her court coverage and speed are truly exceptional.

The hard court in Beijing accentuates flat drives, quick exchanges, and movement. It won’t overly favor one over the other—but it rewards precision, control, and mental composure. Seeing their performances this season, Fernandez might have an edge this time.

Written by

Sayantan Roy

Sayantan Roy is a seasoned tennis journalist at EssentiallySports. He brings a deep tactical understanding to his coverage, breaking down head-to-head records, match dynamics, and on-court strategies with precision. For more than two years, Sayantan has been a key member of the Live Events desk, delivering real-time insights and data-backed predictions for the platform’s Matchday Preview section. His analytical approach has sparked editorial debates and drawn recognition from respected tennis voices, including commentator and analyst Olly_Tennis. Combining his experience in writing with a passion for insightful sports journalism, Sayantan’s work serves as a trusted reference point for tennis fans around the world.

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