Aryna Sabalenka has never pretended to hide her emotions. Melbourne saw that firsthand in 2025 when the world watched her smash her racket, bury her face in a towel, and then disappear into the tunnel before the post-match ceremony could even begin. For Sabalenka, that 3-6, 6-2, 5-7 defeat to Madison Keys was not just a defeat; it was a wound she carried for months. Almost a year later, though, Sabalenka arrives at Melbourne Park with a very different presence.

“That final was a tough one. She played incredibly and overplayed me. It took me a little time to recover,” she said, chin held steady by eyes revealing how real the memory still is. But then she laughs—not out of dismissal but out of recognition. Because Sabalenka did recover. And she rebuilt. After that, she met Keys at the 2025 Indian Wells and 2026 Brisbane International. Sabalenka got the better of the American on both these occasions.

Coming to her goals at the 2026 AO, Aryna Sabalenka added, “Going to this AO, I'm not really focusing on that result. But of course, I would like to do just a little bit better than I did last year.” The two-time champion (2023, 2024) wants to prove herself once again on this grandest stage in Melbourne.

But does she label herself as the favorite at the 2026 AO, especially after the Brisbane victory? Well, the current world number one didn’t drop a single set on her run to the title in Brisbane. But when it came to expressing her thoughts on whether she would start the AO as a clear favorite, she said:

“Well, I don’t know. It’s tennis, it’s a sport, and that’s why it’s so beautiful, because you cannot predict anything. It’s like every day you go out there, and you prove your level, you prove your point. I think this week I did it really well, but nobody knows what’s gonna happen in the future, but the only one thing I’m sure is that I will be there, I’ll be fighting, I’ll do my best to go as far as possible, and do a little bit better than I did last year. That’s where is my focus. My focus is on my game and developing myself and making sure that I’m strong and healthy heading to the AO.”

As she prepares for Opening Week - splitting her energy between practice courts, PR duties, and the familiar rhythm of Grand Slam anticipation - Aryna Sabalenka looks calmer, stronger, and hungrier than she did one year ago. What does the tennis world think about her chances at the 2026 AO, though?

American legend picks Aryna Sabalenka as the favorite at the 2026 AO

The 2026 AO is right around the corner, and the energy in Melbourne is thicker than ever. On the latest episode of Served with Andy Roddick, the former world number one didn’t hesitate to name his picks for who will dominate the year’s first Grand Slam. His prediction? On the men’s side, he picked Jannik Sinner, but Roddick snubbed the defending champion Madison Keys when it came to the WTA.

Roddick has never been one to shy away from bold calls, but this time, his confidence borders on certainty. “I’m going to take a flyer here and take [Aryna] Sabalenka to win the Australian Open. I think she wins it again.”

It’s not hard to see why. Aryna Sabalenka has been nearly untouchable in Melbourne over the past few seasons, winning 20 of her last 21 matches at the tournament. But if Sabalenka’s recent form is any indication, she’s arrived in Australia on a mission. Who are going to be her probable opponents, though?

R1 - Rakotomanga Rajaonah

R2 - Pavlyuchenkova/ Qualifier

R3 - Raducanu / Potapova / Lamens

R4 - Tauson / Mboko 

QF - Paolini / Alexandrova / Kostyuk / Jovic / Haddad Maia

SF - Gauff / Andreeva / Svitolina / Muchova / Navarro

F - Swiatek / Rybakina / Anisimova / Pegula / Keys / Badosa / Osaka / Bencic

Looking at her level, her momentum, and her near-perfect record in Melbourne, Roddick’s prediction feels less like a gamble and more like a logical conclusion. But do you think Aryna Sabalenka can really overcome these hurdles and win her third title here?

Written by

Sayantan Roy

Sayantan Roy is a seasoned tennis journalist at EssentiallyTennis. He brings a deep tactical understanding to his coverage, breaking down head-to-head records, match dynamics, and on-court strategies with precision. For more than two years, Sayantan has been a key member of the Live Events desk, delivering real-time insights and data-backed predictions for the platform’s Matchday Preview section. His analytical approach has sparked editorial debates and drawn recognition from respected tennis voices, including commentator and analyst Olly_Tennis. Combining his experience in writing with a passion for insightful sports journalism, Sayantan’s work serves as a trusted reference point for tennis fans around the world.

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