Coco Gauff’s 2026 AO campaign may only be days from liftoff, but the storylines have already begun swirling long before she steps onto the courts at Melbourne Park. When the main draw for the 114th edition of the tournament was unveiled on Thursday (January 15), the tennis world immediately zoomed in on one possible early-round blockbuster: a second-round showdown between Gauff and 7x Grand Slam champion Venus Williams.

Gauff (2x major champion) enters the season-opening Major as one of 11 Slam winners in the women’s singles field - including four former champions in Melbourne - yet it’s her potential meeting with her childhood idol that has become the headline talking point. For Gauff, it will be her seventh appearance in Melbourne. She reached the SF here in 2024, QF in 2025, and now she’s a genuine favorite for the crown. But looking at the draw, if she wants to lift the Daphne Akhurst Memorial Cup, she needs to put up a really strong show this year.

Coco Gauff will start her campaign against Uzbekistan’s Kamilla Rakhimova. Gauff currently has an H2H record of 1-0 with Rakhimova. She defeated her last year in the R64 of the China Open by 6-5, 6-0. Then, if everything goes right, we could witness yet another chapter to one of the most poetic generational stories in modern tennis in the second round. Talking about her possible meeting with Williams, well, their most famous encounter came in 2019, when a 15-year-old Gauff stunned a 7x major winner in the first round of Wimbledon.

Later on, after the victory, an emotional Gauff admitted, “I wouldn’t be here if it wasn’t for her (Venus).” She followed up that moment with another win over Venus Williams at the 2020 AO. Six years later, the roles have shifted dramatically. Gauff is now the world number 3, a superstar in the current era. Venus, still competing with grit and determination at 45, enters as a wildcard searching for her first win of the 2026 season after early exits in Auckland and Hobart.

If Coco Gauff wins that match, she could possibly face the 2023 Wimbledon champion, Marketa Vondrousova, in the third round before taking on either Karolina Muchova or Emma Navarro in the fourth round. In the QF, Gauff may cross paths with the former world number 3, Elina Svitolina, or the current world number 8, Mirra Andreeva. Gauff has a 2-1 record against the Ukrainian, but against Andreeva, it’s a clean sheet (4-0).

In the semis, Gauff has a high chance of facing the current world number one, Aryna Sabalenka, before finally heading to a possible blockbuster clash against Iga Swiatek in the final. Do you know that the Pole has an 11-5 record against the American?

So, this is going to be a real challenge for Coco Gauff. Talking about the draw, it’s a gauntlet packed with power hitters, former Slam champions, young guns like her, and also seasoned veterans… everything you would expect from a loaded Australian Open field. Can Gauff lift her first-ever AO title this year?

Tennis bigwigs drop their predictions on Coco Gauff’s chances of winning the 2026 AO

The AO draw is out, the experts have weighed in, and a familiar question is beginning to echo through the tennis world: Is Coco Gauff truly the favorite to win the 2026 AO? Well, according to the former ATP star Greg Rusedski, the road ahead may be far more complicated than the rankings suggest for the world number 3.

During the latest episode of Off Court with Greg, Rusedski broke down the women’s draw in detail, and his focus quickly settled on Gauff’s path. His assessment was blunt.

“I look at Coco Gauff’s section, and I think she has the hardest section of anybody out there. Who she has to play to make it to the semis, if she is going to get a rematch with [Aryna] Sabalenka? If you look at her section, the players that she has from the start are going to be very, very difficult. She has got Venus [Williams] in her section; she has got lots of different players she can struggle against, like [Elina] Svitolina, [Mirra] Andreeva, all those players in that section.”

On the other side, Coco Gauff’s former coach, Brad Gilbert, has already named the player who is a huge favorite at the 2026 AO, and it’s not Coco! During the Tennis Channel’s Big T Podcast, he said, “I do think on the women’s side, Sabalenka is a huge favorite. She’s played very well in Australia the last three years and been the most consistent woman. In the last 12 majors, she’s been in the semis or better in 11.”

However, Gilbert did acknowledge Gauff’s improvements in her most recent match and expressed optimism. “I do think that Coco played a little bit better in her last match. I would like to see her make a deep run.”

If Coco Gauff can navigate the minefield of her early rounds and find rhythm quickly, she could absolutely challenge for the title. What do you say on this, though?

Written by

Sayantan Roy

Sayantan Roy is a seasoned tennis journalist at EssentiallyTennis. He brings a deep tactical understanding to his coverage, breaking down head-to-head records, match dynamics, and on-court strategies with precision. For more than two years, Sayantan has been a key member of the Live Events desk, delivering real-time insights and data-backed predictions for the platform’s Matchday Preview section. His analytical approach has sparked editorial debates and drawn recognition from respected tennis voices, including commentator and analyst Olly_Tennis. Combining his experience in writing with a passion for insightful sports journalism, Sayantan’s work serves as a trusted reference point for tennis fans around the world.

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