The packed crowd in Beijing was bracing for another classic Iga Swiatek masterclass. But instead, the unthinkable happened. Swiatek had a 2-0 record against Emma Navarro, but the American stunned the former world number with a 6-4,4-6,6-0 win in the R16 of the China Open. The Pole is renowned for inflicting 6-0 sets on her opponents, but this time she was on the receiving end of a ‘bagel.’ Perhaps! For Swiatek, the shocking R16 exit wasn’t just another early tournament stumble—it might also be a crucial turning point in the heated battle for the World number one Aryna Sabalenka.

After already having tasted a title triumph here in 2023, Swiatek entered this tournament as a clear favorite, but in this R16 clash, Navarro controlled aggression and variation in her game, causing a few troubles for the six-time major champion. Swiatek amassed 70 unforced errors to just 35 winners in this 2-hour and 31-minute duel. She marked one of the highest error tallies of her career. Shortly after the match, Swiatek admitted, “I'm not injured. I just played bad today. I managed to, like, work on it in the second set. Then, in the third, probably the mistakes I did from the beginning of the match kind of came back. Yeah, like, I didn't really, I don't know, fix the shots that I played wrong or something. I kind of knew what I'm doing wrong. I don't know; I was stuck in doing it wrong rather than actually solving it.”

She admitted she was a bit more “nervous” and didn’t feel like anything was working for her in this epic duel. For months, the WTA has been defined by the back-and-forth duel between Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka. Now, with the Pole’s exit from the China Open, Sabalenka gets an unexpected lifeline. The Belarusian is now much more comfortable in the fight for the year-end number one.

After winning her 25th career title at the Korea Open recently, Swiatek surpassed Sabalenka in the most matches won by a player in 2025 stat. Currently, she has a win-loss record of 57-13, while it’s 56-10 for Aryna Sabalenka. But despite having an edge here, Swiatek’s missed opportunity at the China Open has now become the talk of the town. Sabalenka had decided to skip the event in Beijing, citing a minor injury after her title triumph at the US Open, and the absence of her presented Swiatek with a great opportunity to reduce her gap with the world number one in the singles ranking.

At the start of the China Open, Aryna Sabalenka sat on 11,225 points, i.e., 2,792 points clear of Swiatek. Sabalenka reached the QF here in 2024, but since she had withdrawn from this event this year, it meant she’d lose around 215 points. Hence, if we take a look at the Live Rankings now, Sabalenka is still sitting at the top with 11,010 points, while Swiatek is in second place with just 8553 points. By reaching the R16, the Pole collected 120 points. She could have moved to 8,648 points if she had won this match against Navarro, while she could also have jumped to 9,433 points if she had claimed the title, which would have left her 1,577 points behind the Belarusian star.

Iga Swiatek currently has a 2,457-point gap with Sabalenka. Although this means that she is now 335 points closer to Sabalenka, the difference between the two is still quite big. So, Swiatek’s defeat against Navarro is a major boost for Sabalenka’s hope of finishing the year on the highest note (as world number one).

Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek will be seen in action at the Wuhan Open

When Aryna Sabalenka steps onto the court, there’s a raw force in every forehand, a fire in every roar. Across the net, Iga Swiatek brings a different kind of storm—calculated precision, mental resilience, and a relentless rhythm that grinds opponents down. Together, these two have created one of the fiercest rivalries women’s tennis has seen in years, a duel that has transformed the WTA landscape into a two-queen battleground.

They’ve met each other 13 times in the Tour, and currently, the Pole has an 8-5 edge in their H2H record, and as things stand, they could possibly cross paths against each other in Wuhan now.

Aryna Sabalenka is expected to make her return to the Tour at the 2025 Wuhan Open. Three-time champion (2018,2019,2024), will be competing for the first time since her US Open triumph. Here, she will be joined by Iga Swiatek (2), Coco Gauff (3), and plenty of other superstars in women’s tennis. Reigning champion Sabalenka will have to defend her points here, but on the other side, for Swiatek, there are no such points to defend, as she didn’t take part in this tournament last year.

What are the ranking points on offer at the Wuhan Open?

The main draw action will commence on October 6. This tournament will yet again give Swiatek a chance to reduce the gap with the current world number one. 

But Aryna Sabalenka has never lost a match in Wuhan, so it won’t be easy for the Pole. Speaking about this tournament last year, Sabalenka said, “This tournament feels like playing at home.” She will be the top seed here in the final WTA 1000 tournament of the 2025 season.

However, at the moment, Aryna Sabalenka is enjoying her time off the court! She was recently spotted enjoying her vacation in Greece with her boyfriend, Georgios Frangulis. It’ll be interesting to see if she can continue her journey from where she left off at the US Open and finish the year on the highest note or not.

Written by

Sayantan Roy

Sayantan Roy is a seasoned tennis journalist at EssentiallySports. He brings a deep tactical understanding to his coverage, breaking down head-to-head records, match dynamics, and on-court strategies with precision. For more than two years, Sayantan has been a key member of the Live Events desk, delivering real-time insights and data-backed predictions for the platform’s Matchday Preview section. His analytical approach has sparked editorial debates and drawn recognition from respected tennis voices, including commentator and analyst Olly_Tennis. Combining his experience in writing with a passion for insightful sports journalism, Sayantan’s work serves as a trusted reference point for tennis fans around the world.

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