The bright lights of the Wuhan Open glimmer under October’s crisp skies. The crowd buzzes with anticipation. In the cool morning air, two titans of women’s tennis prepare to step onto the court—Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula—their rivalry poised for yet another chapter. For Sabalenka, Wuhan is sacred ground. She comes in as the three-time defending champion, having never lost a match at this event. Sabalenka strides through the city’s quiet dusk like a queen returning to her throne. But for Pegula?

The 31-year-old American carries quiet determination. She has navigated a gauntlet of matches to arrive here, and with her WTA Finals hopes still alive, she’s playing with urgency as much as ambition. But who has the real edge in this contest?

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula: Preview

Aryna Sabalenka’s route to the last four has been commanding. With her blend of power and intensity, she has extended her unbeaten Wuhan run to 20. With this, Sabalenka is now the fourth player to win their first 20 main draw matches in a single WTA-level event since 1990. Incredible dominance from the Belarusian! She defeated Elena Rybakina in the QF by 6-3, 6-3.

After this incredible win, Sabalenka said, “We have a really huge history against each other. Always great battles ... (Rybakina) always pushes me to the limit to get the win.” Talking about her incredible track record here at Wuhan (winning titles in 2018, 2019, and 2024), she said, “I feel a really great connection with the Chinese fans, I guess. I feel at home every time playing here. Honestly, that’s just crazy.”

She loves playing in this part of the world. But if we take a look at her overall record in this season, Aryna Sabalenka started the season with a title triumph in Brisbane, but she went down to Madison Keys in the AO final. After failing to defend her title in Melbourne, Sabalenka lost yet another final at Indian Wells before finally clinching her second title of the season in Miami. Although she reached the final at the BOSS Open, she was defeated by Jelena Ostapenko in that match. However, Sabalenka came back strongly at the Madrid Open and defeated Coco Gauff in the final by 6-3, 7-6(3).

But then, the American took her revenge against Sabalenka in the French Open final. After failing to win titles in the first three major events of the 2025 season, Sabalenka finally managed to win one at the US Open. She defeated Amanda Anisimova by 6-3, 7-6(3) in the final. Now, since she has already won four titles this season, can the Belarusian bring her fifth by winning this tournament in Wuhan?

Time will tell! On the other hand, Jessica Pegula’s journey, by contrast, has required grit. She has survived tense battles—tested in three-setters—and has shown flexibility in adapting midmatch. She has now played seven consecutive three-setters and won six out of them. After winning her R16 match against Ekaterina Alexandrov by 7-5,3-6,6-3, Pegula joked, “I can’t remember the last time I played two sets.”

Surprisingly, even her QF match against Katerina Siniakova went to three sets. She lost the first game by 2-6, but then came back strongly in the next two to wrap up the match by 2-6,6-0,6-3. Even Jessica Pegula is befuddled at how she’s doing it. “I don’t know. I guess I’m in really good shape. I definitely don’t think I need to play anymore matches or work on any physical stuff because I’ve been able to battle through these matches and play really well. But yeah, I don’t know,” she said after the match.

She even joked that if she wins every match for the rest of her life in three sets, she’d be pretty happy as well. In reaching the SF at the Wuhan Open, Pegula has now also registered her 50th win of the 2025 season. This is the second season after 2023 where she has managed 50+ wins at the WTA level. Truly Incredible!

Pegula has won three titles this season, where the first one came at the ATX Open and then the second one came in Charleston. But the third one was probably the most special one, as she defeated the former world number one, Iga Swiatek, in the final of the Bad Homburg Open by 6-4, 7-5. Can she now get the better of the other Top 2 opponent in her next match, though?

Sabalenka vs Pegula: Head-to-Head

Their encounters have largely favored one side. Aryna Sabalenka leads 8-2 in their H2H. Their recent clashes have often been high-stake affairs—finals, semis, marquee events. Sabalenka has generally held the edge, using her ferocity and tactical aggression to tilt close matches in her favor. We’ll have to wait a bit to check if we are going to see a similar outcome this time as well.

• 2025 US Open SF: Sabalenka 4-6, 6-3, 6-4.
• 2025 Miami Open Final: Sabalenka 7-5, 6-2.
• 2024 US Open Final: Sabalenka 7-5, 7-5.
• 2024 Cincinnati Open Final: Sabalenka 6-3, 7-5.
• 2023 WTA Finals Group Stage: Pegula 6-4, 6-3.
• 2022 WTA Finals Group Stage: Sabalenka 6-3, 7-5.
• 2022 Italian Open R16: Sabalenka 6-1, 6-4.
• 2021 Madrid Open R16: Sabalenka 6-1, 6-2.
• 2020 French Open R1: Sabalenka 6-3, 6-1.
• 2020 Cincinnati Open: Pegula 6-2, 2-6, 6-3.

Although Sabalenka may have the edge here, let me tell you, Pegula is no slouch. She has improved consistency, court craft, and mental resilience over recent seasons. Her challenge: to stretch Sabalenka, drag her into uncomfortable rallies, and recover from errors at critical moments. If she does this right, fans could possibly be gifted a blockbuster showdown in Wuhan.

Prediction: Sabalenka will win this match in a tight three-setter

Given the numbers, pedigrees, and sheer Wuhan dominance, Sabalenka enters as the favorite. But this isn’t destined to be an easy walk. Pegula (ranked 6th) has tools to threaten the world number one. Talking about her playing style, Jessica Pegula is an aggressive baseliner with a powerful, flat forehand and a highly consistent all-court game. She is known for her strong groundstrokes, sharp timing, ability to hit the ball early, and tactical intelligence, which allows her to generate power without relying on overwhelming force.

Other than that, her aggressive style is complemented by good movement and net skills, making her a complete and mentally tough player. Pegula must find openings, perhaps vary pace, drop in slices, pull Aryna forward, and reward risk to win this epic duel.

Her win-loss record in this season is currently 50-20, while it’s 58-10 for the Belarusian. Now, coming to Sabalenka’s playing style, her game is characterized by aggressive baseline play, utilizing powerful serves (she has already hit 242 aces this season) and groundstrokes, particularly her fierce forehand and backhand, to pressure opponents and hit winners. Aryna Sabalenka is known for her power and risk-taking, which, while leading to high winner counts, can also result in unforced errors. 

She will seek to dominate with her heavy groundstrokes, take charge of rallies, and break Pegula’s rhythm. Looking at the form these two have been in this season, this match will surely take some time to decide the winner. But Aryna Sabalenka’s firepower and experience in big moments will likely close the deal in this contest.

Written by

Sayantan Roy

Sayantan Roy is a seasoned tennis journalist at EssentiallySports. He brings a deep tactical understanding to his coverage, breaking down head-to-head records, match dynamics, and on-court strategies with precision. For more than two years, Sayantan has been a key member of the Live Events desk, delivering real-time insights and data-backed predictions for the platform’s Matchday Preview section. His analytical approach has sparked editorial debates and drawn recognition from respected tennis voices, including commentator and analyst Olly_Tennis. Combining his experience in writing with a passion for insightful sports journalism, Sayantan’s work serves as a trusted reference point for tennis fans around the world.

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Edited by

Shrabana Sengupta